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Sao Paulo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bahia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sao Paulo beat Bahia 2-0 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.69 xG and Bahia 0.98 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bahia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Bahia attack 0.98 / defence 1.19, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 54% | Draw 24% | Bahia 22%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 51%, Bahia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sao Paulo's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Bahia's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sao Paulo 1.45 PPG, Bahia 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sao Paulo win broke the near-deadlock. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights