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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Vitoria defy the odds to beat Santos 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitoria beat Santos 0-1 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.81 xG and Vitoria 1.05 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Santos fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.84 / defence 1.20 against Vitoria attack 0.89 / defence 1.47, drawn from 27/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 55% | Draw 23% | Vitoria 22%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Vitoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 52%, Vitoria 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Vitoria's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 1.15 PPG, Vitoria 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitoria win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights