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Dominant Vasco DA Gama run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Santos.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vasco DA Gama beat Santos 0-6 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.43 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.23 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Santos fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 1.23 projection by 4.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.10 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 42% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 32%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Vasco DA Gama win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 56%, Vasco DA Gama 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 1.17 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasco DA Gama win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights