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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 20

Kick-off

Sun 17 Aug 2025

20:00

Venue

Estadio Do MorumBIS

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santos Win

42%

Santos

2.39

26%

Draw

3.84

32%

Vasco DA Gama

3.10

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.0%

Home win

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.43

Santos xG

Total xG

2.66

1.23

Vasco DA Gama xG

42%
26%
32%
SantosDrawVasco DA Gama

2.39

42%

Home win

3.84

26%

Draw

3.10

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

74%

Over 1.5

1.35

26%

Under 1.5

3.85

50%

Over 2.5

2.00

50%

Under 2.5

2.00

28%

Over 3.5

3.57

72%

Under 3.5

1.39

13%

Over 4.5

7.69

87%

Under 4.5

1.15

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.17

Clean Sheet

29%

Santos

3.41

24%

Vasco DA Gama

4.19

Win to Nil

12%

Santos

8.16

8%

Vasco DA Gama

13.01

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.0 8.6 5.3 2.2 0.7 0.2
1 10.0 12.3 7.5 3.1 0.9 0.2
2 7.2 8.8 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 3.4 4.2 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1
5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.433
λ Away (xG) 1.226
Total xG 2.659
League avg home goals 1.292
League avg away goals 1.053
Santos attack strength 0.913
Santos defence strength 1.061
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 1.098
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 1.214
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 18 / 55