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Shock result as RB Bragantino defy the odds to beat Santos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino beat Santos 1-2 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.41 xG and RB Bragantino 1.00 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. RB Bragantino outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against RB Bragantino attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 44% | Draw 32% | RB Bragantino 24%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a RB Bragantino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 55%, RB Bragantino 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 1.13 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights