🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Palmeiras (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Santos face Palmeiras.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Santos welcome Palmeiras to Estadio Urbano Caldeira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 November 2025 at 00:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Santos's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Urbano Caldeira this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Santos are significantly better at Estadio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Form points away from home here. Palmeiras's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Santos's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Palmeiras have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Santos.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Palmeiras winning.

It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Data

Santos trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Palmeiras trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 50% versus Palmeiras 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 50% | Palmeiras 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 0.98 xG and Palmeiras 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.746 / defence 1.157 | Palmeiras attack 1.326 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.011. Santos's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Santos games / 70 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Santos 24% | Draw 26% | Palmeiras 51%. Fair-value odds: Santos 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Palmeiras 1.96. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Santos 50% | Palmeiras 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights