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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Santos and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 34, as Santos and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.05 xG and Mirassol 0.97 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against Mirassol attack 0.93 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 37% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 33%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 48%, Mirassol 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Mirassol's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights