🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Santos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Juventude.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santos beat Juventude 3-1 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.71 xG and Juventude 0.71 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Santos beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Juventude attack 0.68 / defence 1.66, drawn from 16/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 61% | Draw 25% | Juventude 15%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 50%, Juventude 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Juventude's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 0.94 PPG, Juventude 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights