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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Internacional defy the odds to beat Santos 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Internacional beat Santos 1-2 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.31 xG and Internacional 0.83 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Internacional outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.84 / defence 1.00 against Internacional attack 0.94 / defence 1.24, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 48% | Draw 29% | Internacional 24%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Internacional win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 43%, Internacional 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

Internacional's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 1.00 PPG, Internacional 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights