Santos 0-3 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santos at 55% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Coritiba at Neo Química Arena in Serie A (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Santos — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Santos at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Head to Head
Santos hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Coritiba and 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2023, ended Santos 2–1 Coritiba — a Santos win.
The head-to-head data gives Santos an edge — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.76 xG and Coritiba 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.010 / defence 0.940 | Coritiba attack 0.975 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.088. Data: built from Santos's last 53 games and Coritiba's last 15.
Result probabilities: Santos 55% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 21%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.81 | Draw 4.23 | Coritiba 4.73. The model has a clear lean to Santos (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santos as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Santos 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 55% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Santos 1.76 / Coritiba 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.010 / def 0.940 | Coritiba attack 0.975 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Santos (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Santos xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Coritiba xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Santos vs Coritiba FAQs
What time does Santos vs Coritiba kick off?
Santos vs Coritiba kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Santos vs Coritiba?
Santos 0 - 3 Coritiba.
Where is Santos vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Santos vs Coritiba part of?
Santos vs Coritiba is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 55% chance of winning, Coritiba a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Santos and Coritiba will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Santos vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santos's attack rating (1.01) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Santos's last 53 games and Coritiba's last 15 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
55%
1.81
24%
4.23
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Santos xG
Total xG
2.76
1.00
Coritiba xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
4%
27.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Santos vs Coritiba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Santos and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Santos and 1.00 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Santos (Home) vs Coritiba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Santos
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 17 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Coritiba won Santos 0-3 Coritiba.
Santos's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Santos
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Santos vs Coritiba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Coritiba?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Santos have won 3, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Santos and Coritiba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 May 2026: Santos 0-3 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Coritiba?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Coritiba run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Santos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba beat Santos 0-3 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.76 xG and Coritiba 1.00 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Santos fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Coritiba outscored their 1.00 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Coritiba attack 0.97 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 55% | Draw 24% | Coritiba 21%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Coritiba win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.