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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Santos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Corinthians.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santos beat Corinthians 3-1 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 0.92 xG and Corinthians 1.09 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Santos beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Corinthians attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 26/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 30% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 39%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Santos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 50%, Corinthians 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Corinthians's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 1.08 PPG, Corinthians 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights