Santos 2-2 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Santos at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Chapecoense-sc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Urbano Caldeira plays host to Santos versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 25 July 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Santos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santos have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio Urbano Caldeira — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Santos are significantly better at Estadio Urbano Caldeira than their overall form suggests.
Chapecoense-sc (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0W 2D 7L from 9 away outings — 0.22 PPG. Away from home they average 0.44 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Santos's favour (1.10 vs 0.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Santos, 1 for Chapecoense-sc and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 2–4 with Chapecoense-sc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Santos half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Santos 74% and Chapecoense-sc 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 63% | Chapecoense-sc 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.68 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.022 / defence 1.071 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.625 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.126. Data: 57 Santos games / 19 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 59% | Draw 25% | Chapecoense-sc 16%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Chapecoense-sc 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Santos (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Santos 60% | Chapecoense-sc 44%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 59% | Draw 25% | Chapecoense-sc 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 44% | xG Santos 1.68 / Chapecoense-sc 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.022 / def 1.071 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.625 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Santos (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Chapecoense-sc xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
Santos 2 - 2 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Santos vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Santos vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 59% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Santos and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Chapecoense-sc?
Record (3 meetings): Santos 2W | Draws 0 | Chapecoense-sc 1W.
What form are Santos and Chapecoense-sc in?
Santos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Santos's attack at 1.02x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.62x) against Santos's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 57/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.6%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
59%
1.70
25%
3.94
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Santos xG
Total xG
2.43
0.75
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
3%
33.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.1 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Santos and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Santos and 0.75 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Chapecoense-sc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 19 outings, Santos have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 5W 6D 8L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc's form line: 1W 6D 12L from 19 games, 0.47 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Santos are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Santos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Santos are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.89 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Santos have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 5W 6D 8L in their last 19 games (1.11 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 1W 6D 12L in their last 19 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Santos's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.78 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Santos
1
Draws
1
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Chapecoense-sc?
From 4 meetings on record, Santos have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Santos 2-2 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Chapecoense-sc?
Santos have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Chapecoense-sc see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 56%, Chapecoense-sc 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Santos) and 22% (Chapecoense-sc).
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chapecoense-sc in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Chapecoense-sc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Santos's recent matches and 44% of Chapecoense-sc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Santos's recent games and 22% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Santos and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 20, as Santos and Chapecoense-sc drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.68 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.75 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.62 / defence 1.15, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 59% | Draw 25% | Chapecoense-sc 16%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 63%, Chapecoense-sc 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Santos arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.47. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Chapecoense-sc (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.44 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.