Santos 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Santos take on Botafogo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Santos and Botafogo meet at Estadio Urbano Caldeira in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 June 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Santos haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santos have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Urbano Caldeira — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Botafogo have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Botafogo's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Botafogo arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Santos, 1 for Botafogo and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Santos half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 50% versus Botafogo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Santos 55% | Botafogo 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 0.81 xG and Botafogo 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 0.878 / defence 1.149 | Botafogo attack 0.719 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 0.846. Botafogo's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Santos games / 47 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 34% | Draw 39% | Botafogo 27%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.94 | Draw 2.56 | Botafogo 3.70. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Botafogo's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.51 combined xG gives a 19% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates are neutral: Santos 60% | Botafogo 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 34% | Draw 39% | Botafogo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 29% | xG Santos 0.81 / Botafogo 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 0.878 / def 1.149 | Botafogo attack 0.719 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.304 / away 0.846 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Botafogo xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Botafogo kick off?
Santos vs Botafogo kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Botafogo?
Santos 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Santos vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Botafogo part of?
Santos vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 34% chance of winning, Botafogo a 27% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Santos and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Botafogo?
Record (4 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 2 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Santos and Botafogo in?
Santos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Botafogo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Santos's attack rating (0.88) and Botafogo's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (0.72x) against Santos's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 10/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.96
39%
2.58
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Santos xG
Total xG
1.51
0.70
Botafogo xG
2.96
34%
Home win
2.58
39%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.45
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.2 | 15.5 | 5.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.5 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.8%.
How many goals are Santos and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Santos and 0.70 for Botafogo, a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Santos have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 11W 10D 17L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. Santos haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Botafogo's form line: 23W 10D 5L from 38 games, 2.08 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Santos.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 11W 5D 3L from 19 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Santos are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.55 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Pre-Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 23W 10D 5L in their last 38 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.32 PPG; Botafogo away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Santos or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Botafogo in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 3-0 on 10 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Santos have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
3
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Botafogo?
From 7 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Botafogo have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 16 July 2026, when Botafogo 2-1 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 58%, Botafogo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Santos) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo in 47%; Santos have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Botafogo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Santos's games and 53% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Santos vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Santos's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Botafogo tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Santos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Santos 0-1 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 0.81 xG and Botafogo 0.70 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Santos fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.88 / defence 1.15 against Botafogo attack 0.72 / defence 0.70, drawn from 10/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 34% | Draw 39% | Botafogo 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 55%, Botafogo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.