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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Santos cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atletico-MG.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santos beat Atletico-MG 2-0 at Estadio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.41 xG and Atletico-MG 1.15 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atletico-MG landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 0.95 / defence 1.26 against Atletico-MG attack 0.95 / defence 1.09, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santos 40% | Draw 31% | Atletico-MG 28%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 55%, Atletico-MG 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Atletico-MG's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santos 1.13 PPG, Atletico-MG 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights