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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Thu 17 Apr 2025

01:30

Venue

Estadio Urbano Caldeira

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Santos Win

40%

Santos

2.47

31%

Draw

3.18

28%

Atletico-MG

3.57

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.9%

Home win

0 – 1

8.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.41

Santos xG

Total xG

2.56

1.15

Atletico-MG xG

40%
31%
28%
SantosDrawAtletico-MG

2.47

40%

Home win

3.18

31%

Draw

3.57

28%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.84

46%

BTTS No

2.19

Clean Sheet

32%

Santos

3.16

24%

Atletico-MG

4.11

Win to Nil

13%

Santos

7.79

7%

Atletico-MG

14.67

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.7 8.9 5.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
1 10.9 12.5 7.2 2.8 0.8 0.2
2 7.7 8.9 5.1 1.9 0.6 0.1
3 3.6 4.2 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 1.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1
5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.414
λ Away (xG) 1.149
Total xG 2.563
League avg home goals 1.363
League avg away goals 0.953
Santos attack strength 0.954
Santos defence strength 1.264
Atletico-MG attack strength 0.953
Atletico-MG defence strength 1.087
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 3 / 41