Remo 1-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Remo face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Remo welcome Palmeiras to Mangueirão in Serie A (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Across their last 10 games, Palmeiras have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 0.87 xG and Palmeiras 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.821 / defence 1.123 | Palmeiras attack 1.137 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.105. Palmeiras bring a tight defence (rating 0.729, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Remo's projected output down. Data: built from Remo's last 14 games and Palmeiras's last 52.
Result probabilities: Remo 23% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 50%. Fair-value odds: Remo 4.30 | Draw 3.68 | Palmeiras 2.02. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Mangueirão • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 23% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Remo 0.87 / Palmeiras 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.821 / def 1.123 | Palmeiras attack 1.137 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Palmeiras xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Remo vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Remo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Remo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Mangueirão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Palmeiras?
Remo 1 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Remo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Mangueirão.
What competition is Remo vs Palmeiras part of?
Remo vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 23% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 50% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Remo and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Remo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Remo's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Remo's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Remo's last 14 games and Palmeiras's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
23%
4.30
27%
3.68
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Remo xG
Total xG
2.29
1.41
Palmeiras xG
4.30
23%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 14.4 | 10.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Remo vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Remo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Remo and 1.41 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Remo (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Remo
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from May 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 5 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Remo
1
Draws
1
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Remo vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Palmeiras?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Remo have won 0, Palmeiras have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Remo and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 November 2026: Palmeiras 6-1 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Remo and Palmeiras share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mangueirão, Regular Season - 15, as Remo and Palmeiras drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 0.87 xG and Palmeiras 1.41 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Palmeiras attack 1.14 / defence 0.73, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 23% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 50%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.