Remo vs Corinthians – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Corinthians travel to Estadio Evandro Almeida to take on Remo. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 2 December 2026, 21:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Remo stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Remo at Estadio Evandro Almeida this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Remo are significantly better at Estadio Evandro Almeida than their overall form suggests.
Corinthians — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Corinthians's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Remo) versus 0.40 (Corinthians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Remo, 1 for Corinthians and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2026, ended 0–3 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Remo in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Corinthians in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Remo 61% versus Corinthians 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Remo 48% | Corinthians 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.53 xG and Corinthians 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.855 / defence 1.169 | Corinthians attack 1.069 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.120. Corinthians bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Remo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Remo games / 71 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Remo 39% | Draw 28% | Corinthians 33%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Corinthians 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Remo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Remo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Remo 70% | Corinthians 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio Evandro Almeida • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 39% | Draw 28% | Corinthians 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Remo 1.53 / Corinthians 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.855 / def 1.169 | Corinthians attack 1.069 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Remo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Corinthians xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs Corinthians kick off?
Remo vs Corinthians is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2026 at Estadio Evandro Almeida.
Where is Remo vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Evandro Almeida.
What competition is Remo vs Corinthians part of?
Remo vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 39% chance of winning, Corinthians a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Remo and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Corinthians?
Record (1 meetings): Remo 0W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Remo and Corinthians in?
Remo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Corinthians (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Remo's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Remo's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
39%
2.58
28%
3.55
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Remo xG
Total xG
2.93
1.40
Corinthians xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
7%
13.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Remo and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Remo and 1.40 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Remo have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 6W 11D 16L record — D-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Corinthians's form line: 9W 9D 15L from 33 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Remo on 0.88 PPG, Corinthians on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Remo have posted 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L).
On the road, Corinthians have gone 3W 5D 8L from 16 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Remo are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.09 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Remo have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Remo and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Remo have gone 6W 11D 16L in their last 33 games (0.88 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 9W 9D 15L in their last 33 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Remo at home or Corinthians away?
Remo's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Remo at home: 1.12 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Remo or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Remo have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Corinthians in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Remo and Corinthians runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Remo
0
Draws
1
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Corinthians?
From 1 meetings on record, Remo have won 0, Corinthians have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2026, when Corinthians 3-0 Remo.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Corinthians?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Remo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Remo at 69%, Corinthians at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Remo) and 56% (Corinthians).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Remo play Corinthians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Remo's games and 75% of Corinthians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Remo vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Remo's recent games and 56% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Remo and Corinthians tend to score early?
Remo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.