Remo vs Chapecoense-sc – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Remo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Estadio Evandro Almeida plays host to Remo versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Wednesday 18 November 2026 at 23:00 UTC.

Current Form

Remo's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Remo have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Evandro Almeida — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Remo are significantly better at Estadio Evandro Almeida than their overall form suggests.

Chapecoense-sc (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Chapecoense-sc's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Remo 1W, Chapecoense-sc 0W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 3–2 with Remo winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Remo half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Chapecoense-sc half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Remo 62% and Chapecoense-sc 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Remo 50% | Chapecoense-sc 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.68 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.855 / defence 1.169 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.672 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.120. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Remo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Remo games / 32 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Remo 55% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 18%. Fair-value odds: Remo 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Chapecoense-sc 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Remo (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Remo as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Remo 70% | Chapecoense-sc 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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