Remo 4-1 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Remo face Bahia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Remo and Bahia meet at Mangueirão in Serie A (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bahia have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bahia's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 0.93 xG and Bahia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.774 / defence 1.272 | Bahia attack 0.967 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.101. Remo's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Remo's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bahia's projected output up. Data: built from Remo's last 7 games and Bahia's last 44.
Result probabilities: Remo 26% | Draw 28% | Bahia 47%. Fair-value odds: Remo 3.90 | Draw 3.61 | Bahia 2.14. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, matchday 8 | Venue: Mangueirão • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 26% | Draw 28% | Bahia 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Remo 0.93 / Bahia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.774 / def 1.272 | Bahia attack 0.967 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Bahia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Remo xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Bahia xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Remo vs Bahia FAQs
What time does Remo vs Bahia kick off?
Remo vs Bahia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Mangueirão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Bahia?
Remo 4 - 1 Bahia.
Where is Remo vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Mangueirão.
What competition is Remo vs Bahia part of?
Remo vs Bahia is a Serie A fixture (matchday 8) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 26% chance of winning, Bahia a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Remo and Bahia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Remo vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Remo's attack rating (0.77) and Bahia's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (0.97x) against Remo's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from Remo's last 7 games and Bahia's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
26%
3.90
28%
3.61
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Remo xG
Total xG
2.28
1.35
Bahia xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
15.14
19%
5.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.9 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Remo vs Bahia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Remo and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Remo and 1.35 for Bahia, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Bahia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Remo (Home) vs Bahia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Remo
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Remo and Bahia, the earliest from March 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Remo
0
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Remo vs Bahia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Bahia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Remo have won 1, Bahia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Bahia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Bahia 2-1 Remo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Remo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo beat Bahia 4-1 at Mangueirão, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 0.93 xG and Bahia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Remo beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.77 / defence 1.27 against Bahia attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 7/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 26% | Draw 28% | Bahia 47%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Remo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.