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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Bragantino and Sport Recife share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 23, as RB Bragantino and Sport Recife drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.83 xG and Sport Recife 1.01 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. RB Bragantino fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.09 / defence 1.29 against Sport Recife attack 0.73 / defence 1.23, drawn from 60/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 56% | Draw 23% | Sport Recife 21%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 55%, Sport Recife 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Sport Recife's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights