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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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RB Bragantino and Sao Paulo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

RB Bragantino and Sao Paulo finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.13 xG and Sao Paulo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sao Paulo outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Sao Paulo attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 41% | Draw 30% | Sao Paulo 29%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 49%, Sao Paulo 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Sao Paulo's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.37 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights