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Shock result as Fortaleza EC defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortaleza EC beat RB Bragantino 0-1 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.68 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.97 / defence 1.23 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.26 / defence 1.20, drawn from 73/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 41% | Draw 23% | Fortaleza EC 36%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Fortaleza EC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 53%, Fortaleza EC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RB Bragantino's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.22 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights