RB Bragantino vs Criciuma – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Criciuma's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Criciuma's attack (0.79x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.21
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.13
0.81
Criciuma xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.81 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.