RB Bragantino 5-1 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Criciuma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RB Bragantino and Criciuma meet at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RB Bragantino have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
RB Bragantino's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Criciuma's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Criciuma's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for RB Bragantino, 0.60 for Criciuma — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: RB Bragantino 0W, Criciuma 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Criciuma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Criciuma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Bragantino 65% and Criciuma 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 49% | Criciuma 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.32 xG and Criciuma 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.854 / defence 0.970 | Criciuma attack 0.794 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.053. Data: 75 RB Bragantino games / 37 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 47% | Draw 31% | Criciuma 22%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Criciuma 4.55. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RB Bragantino 60% | Criciuma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 47% | Draw 31% | Criciuma 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG RB Bragantino 1.32 / Criciuma 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.854 / def 0.970 | Criciuma attack 0.794 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Criciuma xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Criciuma kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Criciuma kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Criciuma?
RB Bragantino 5 - 1 Criciuma.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Criciuma part of?
RB Bragantino vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 47% chance of winning, Criciuma a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both RB Bragantino and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Criciuma?
Record (1 meetings): RB Bragantino 0W | Draws 0 | Criciuma 1W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Criciuma in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Criciuma (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
RB Bragantino's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Criciuma's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Criciuma's attack (0.79x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.21
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.13
0.81
Criciuma xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.81 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino's recent record stands at 9W 14D 14L from 37 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Criciuma, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 17L across 37 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.03 for Criciuma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RB Bragantino have managed 7W 7D 4L from 18 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — RB Bragantino are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Criciuma's away record stands at 4W 3D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Criciuma are on 1.11 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Criciuma in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Criciuma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Criciuma in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 9W 14D 14L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Criciuma have gone 9W 11D 17L in their last 37 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Criciuma away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.56 PPG; Criciuma away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
RB Bragantino
0
Draws
1
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 1, Criciuma have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when RB Bragantino 5-1 Criciuma.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for RB Bragantino, 67% for Criciuma — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (RB Bragantino) and 67% (Criciuma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Criciuma in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Criciuma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of RB Bragantino's games and 67% of Criciuma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Bragantino vs Criciuma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of RB Bragantino's matches and 67% of Criciuma's.
Do RB Bragantino and Criciuma tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Criciuma in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Bragantino run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Criciuma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Criciuma 5-1 at Estádio Nabi Abi Chedid, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.32 xG and Criciuma 0.81 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. RB Bragantino beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.85 / defence 0.97 against Criciuma attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 47% | Draw 31% | Criciuma 22%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 49%, Criciuma 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Criciuma's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.11 PPG, Criciuma 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RB Bragantino win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm. Criciuma (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.