Palmeiras 5-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Palmeiras face Vitoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Vitoria at Arena Barueri in Serie A (matchday 2). Kick-off is Thursday 5 February 2026 at 00:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Palmeiras have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vitoria stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Vitoria's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Palmeiras) versus 1.70 (Vitoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Palmeiras have won 1, Vitoria 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Nov 2025, ended Palmeiras 0–0 Vitoria — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Vitoria in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 43% versus Vitoria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 47% | Vitoria 45%). Note also that Vitoria surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Palmeiras recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.97 xG and Vitoria 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.099 / defence 0.820 | Vitoria attack 0.947 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.047. Data: built from Palmeiras's last 39 games and Vitoria's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 65% | Draw 21% | Vitoria 15%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.55 | Draw 4.80 | Vitoria 6.83. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (65%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Palmeiras's last 10 home games and Vitoria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palmeiras 40% (last 10 home games) | Vitoria 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Palmeiras 39 games, Vitoria 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, matchday 2 | Venue: Arena Barueri • Kick-off: Thursday 5 February 2026 at 00:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 65% | Draw 21% | Vitoria 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Palmeiras 1.97 / Vitoria 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.099 / def 0.820 | Vitoria attack 0.947 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Vitoria xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria FAQs
What time does Palmeiras vs Vitoria kick off?
Palmeiras vs Vitoria kicked off at 00:30 UK time on Thursday 5 February 2026 at Arena Barueri.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Palmeiras 5 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Palmeiras vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Barueri.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Vitoria part of?
Palmeiras vs Vitoria is a Serie A fixture (matchday 2) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 65% chance of winning, Vitoria a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palmeiras and Vitoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Palmeiras vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Vitoria's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Vitoria's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palmeiras's last 39 games and Vitoria's last 39, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
65%
1.55
21%
4.80
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.78
0.81
Vitoria xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
48.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.81 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 45W 14D 17L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Vitoria's form line: 24W 20D 32L from 76 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.08 PPG from their last 38 home games (24W 7D 7L).
On the road, Vitoria have gone 7W 11D 20L from their last 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Vitoria
Current Season
Palmeiras (Home) vs Vitoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palmeiras
Current Season
Vitoria
Current Season
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria Form FAQs
What form are Palmeiras and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Vitoria away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.08 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Vitoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Vitoria in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 30 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Feb 2026, when Palmeiras won Palmeiras 5-1 Vitoria.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Vitoria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
2
Draws
1
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Palmeiras have won 3, Vitoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Vitoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 July 2026: Vitoria 0-4 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Vitoria 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Palmeiras) and 47% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Palmeiras have failed to score in 29% of games; Vitoria in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palmeiras and Vitoria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 53% of Vitoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palmeiras and Vitoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Palmeiras's recent games and 47% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Vitoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 66% of Vitoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Vitoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Vitoria 5-1 at Arena Barueri, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.97 xG and Vitoria 0.81 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.10 / defence 0.82 against Vitoria attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 65% | Draw 21% | Vitoria 15%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Vitoria 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitoria's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Vitoria (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.