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Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vasco DA Gama.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Vasco DA Gama 3-0 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.06 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.34 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.40 / defence 0.91 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.41 / defence 1.08, drawn from 61/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 54% | Draw 21% | Vasco DA Gama 25%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 44%, Vasco DA Gama 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palmeiras's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.26. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights