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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Wed 1 Oct 2025

23:00

Venue

Allianz Parque

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Palmeiras Win

54%

Palmeiras

1.84

21%

Draw

4.71

25%

Vasco DA Gama

4.07

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.2%

Draw

2 – 0

7.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.06

Palmeiras xG

Total xG

3.40

1.34

Vasco DA Gama xG

54%
21%
25%
PalmeirasDrawVasco DA Gama

1.84

54%

Home win

4.71

21%

Draw

4.07

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

85%

Over 1.5

1.18

15%

Under 1.5

6.67

66%

Over 2.5

1.52

34%

Under 2.5

2.94

44%

Over 3.5

2.27

56%

Under 3.5

1.79

26%

Over 4.5

3.85

74%

Under 4.5

1.35

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

64%

BTTS Yes

1.55

36%

BTTS No

2.80

Clean Sheet

26%

Palmeiras

3.80

13%

Vasco DA Gama

7.88

Win to Nil

14%

Palmeiras

7.01

3%

Vasco DA Gama

32.09

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.3 4.5 3.0 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 6.9 9.2 6.1 2.7 0.9 0.2
2 7.1 9.5 6.3 2.8 0.9 0.3
3 4.9 6.5 4.4 1.9 0.6 0.2
4 2.5 3.4 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.064
λ Away (xG) 1.336
Total xG 3.400
League avg home goals 1.363
League avg away goals 1.042
Palmeiras attack strength 1.399
Palmeiras defence strength 0.910
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 1.410
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 1.082
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 61 / 63