Palmeiras 1-1 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 61% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Santos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Santos travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras in Serie A (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palmeiras stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Palmeiras have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Santos have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Santos's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Palmeiras 1.50 PPG, Santos 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Palmeiras hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 5 wins compared to 2 for Santos and 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Nov 2025, ended Palmeiras 0–1 Santos — a Santos win.
The head-to-head data gives Palmeiras an edge — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Santos in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 50% versus Santos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 53% | Santos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.93 xG and Santos 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.145 / defence 0.779 | Santos attack 1.127 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.053. Palmeiras have a tight defence (rating 0.779), which is pulling Santos's projected output down. Data: built from Palmeiras's last 51 games and Santos's last 51.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 61% | Draw 22% | Santos 18%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.64 | Draw 4.61 | Santos 5.71. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Palmeiras 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Palmeiras's last 10 home games and Santos's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Palmeiras 40% (last 10 home games) | Santos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 61% | Draw 22% | Santos 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Palmeiras 1.93 / Santos 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.145 / def 0.779 | Santos attack 1.127 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Santos xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palmeiras vs Santos FAQs
What time does Palmeiras vs Santos kick off?
Palmeiras vs Santos kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Santos?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 Santos.
Where is Palmeiras vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Santos part of?
Palmeiras vs Santos is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 61% chance of winning, Santos a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Palmeiras and Santos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palmeiras vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Palmeiras's attack rating (1.15) and Santos's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palmeiras's last 51 games and Santos's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.61
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.85
0.92
Santos xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
3%
39.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palmeiras vs Santos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.92 for Santos, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 38 games, going 23W 7D 8L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (12W 11D 15L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Santos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 12W 5D 2L across their last 19 home games, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 19 away games (4W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
Palmeiras (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palmeiras
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Palmeiras vs Santos Form FAQs
What form are Palmeiras and Santos in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 23W 7D 8L in their last 38 games (2.00 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Santos away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.16 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Santos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 28 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Santos specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
3
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Palmeiras vs Santos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Santos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Palmeiras have won 5, Santos have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Santos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 October 2026: Santos 0-0 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Santos?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Santos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Palmeiras) and 58% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Palmeiras have failed to score in 32% of games; Santos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palmeiras vs Santos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palmeiras and Santos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 53% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palmeiras and Santos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Palmeiras's recent games and 58% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Santos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 63% of Santos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras and Santos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 14, as Palmeiras and Santos drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.93 xG and Santos 0.92 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.15 / defence 0.78 against Santos attack 1.13 / defence 1.16, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 61% | Draw 22% | Santos 18%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 53%, Santos 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.