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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Palmeiras and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 14, as Palmeiras and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.13 xG and Mirassol 0.86 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Mirassol attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 42% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 27%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 36%, Mirassol 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palmeiras's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Mirassol's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.55. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights