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Flamengo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Palmeiras.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Flamengo beat Palmeiras 0-2 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 0.96 xG and Flamengo 0.85 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Flamengo outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 0.88 / defence 0.85 against Flamengo attack 1.22 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 35% | Draw 37% | Flamengo 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Flamengo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 45%, Flamengo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Flamengo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.88 PPG, Flamengo 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights