Palmeiras 2-1 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Palmeiras and Corinthians meet at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 April 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
Corinthians have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Corinthians's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palmeiras lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 49% versus Corinthians 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 53% | Corinthians 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.90 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.148 / defence 0.934 | Corinthians attack 1.004 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.008. Data: 40 Palmeiras games / 40 Corinthians games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 59% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 17%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Corinthians 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 40% | Corinthians 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 59% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Palmeiras 1.90 / Corinthians 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.148 / def 0.934 | Corinthians attack 1.004 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Corinthians xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Corinthians kick off?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 Corinthians.
Where is Palmeiras vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Corinthians part of?
Palmeiras vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 59% chance of winning, Corinthians a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Palmeiras and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
Record (3 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 0 | Corinthians 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Corinthians in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Corinthians's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (1.00x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.22
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.84
0.94
Corinthians xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
3%
38.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.94 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 43W 18D 15L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Corinthians's form line: 33W 23D 20L from 76 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Palmeiras against 1.61 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.08 PPG from 38 outings (24W 7D 7L).
On the road, Corinthians have gone 11W 14D 13L from 38 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.11 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 43W 18D 15L in their last 76 games (1.93 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Corinthians away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.08 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Corinthians in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
3
Draws
2
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Corinthians have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Corinthians 0-0 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Corinthians?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 50%, Corinthians 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 37% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Corinthians in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 45% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Palmeiras's recent games and 37% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Corinthians tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Corinthians 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Corinthians 2-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.90 xG and Corinthians 0.94 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Corinthians attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 59% | Draw 24% | Corinthians 17%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 53%, Corinthians 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.93 PPG, Corinthians 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palmeiras win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.