Cuiaba 1-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Gremio travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 April 2023, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Gremio haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Gremio have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Gremio's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cuiaba register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gremio in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cuiaba, 1 for Gremio and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cuiaba trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gremio trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 47% versus Gremio 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 29% | Gremio 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.43 xG and Gremio 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.894 / defence 0.966 | Gremio attack 0.705 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.461 / away 1.111. Data: 40 Cuiaba games / 2 Gremio games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 52% | Draw 29% | Gremio 19%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Gremio 5.26. Cuiaba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cuiaba 60% | Gremio 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 52% | Draw 29% | Gremio 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Cuiaba 1.43 / Gremio 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.894 / def 0.966 | Gremio attack 0.705 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.461 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Gremio xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Gremio kick off?
Cuiaba vs Gremio kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Cuiaba 1 - 2 Gremio.
Where is Cuiaba vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Gremio part of?
Cuiaba vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 52% chance of winning, Gremio a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cuiaba and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Gremio?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Gremio in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Gremio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.45
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.19
0.76
Gremio xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
24%
4.08
4%
22.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.1 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.76 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 11D 17L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.13 PPG from 38 outings (12W 7D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five. Gremio haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.08 PPG, Gremio on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cuiaba's home form reads 6W 8D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (4W 1D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.16 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Gremio
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Gremio in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Gremio have gone 12W 7D 19L in their last 38 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Gremio away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.37 PPG; Gremio away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Gremio runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gremio have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
1
Draws
5
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Gremio?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Gremio have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 53%, Gremio 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Cuiaba and 37% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 26% of games; Gremio in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 42% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Cuiaba's recent games and 37% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Gremio tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Gremio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Cuiaba 1-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.43 xG and Gremio 0.76 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gremio outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.89 / defence 0.97 against Gremio attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 52% | Draw 29% | Gremio 19%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Gremio win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 29%, Gremio 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.08 PPG, Gremio 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.