🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Ceara 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Ceara 2-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.25 xG and Ceara 0.86 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.00 / defence 0.94 against Ceara attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 54/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 45% | Draw 30% | Ceara 25%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 41%, Ceara 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palmeiras's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Ceara's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights