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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Palmeiras.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Palmeiras 1-3 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.23 xG and Botafogo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.33 / defence 0.87 against Botafogo attack 1.05 / defence 0.70, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 43% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 26%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 44%, Botafogo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Palmeiras's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Botafogo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.92 PPG, Botafogo 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights