Palmeiras 2-1 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs America Mineiro encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Parque plays host to Palmeiras versus America Mineiro in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Thursday 10 November 2022 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Palmeiras have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palmeiras have posted 8W 2D 0L at Allianz Parque — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
America Mineiro's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, America Mineiro have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Palmeiras's favour (2.40 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Palmeiras lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2022, ended 1–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Palmeiras half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
America Mineiro half-time and goal-timing data (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 49% versus America Mineiro 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 51% | America Mineiro 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.55 xG and America Mineiro 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.341 / defence 0.679 | America Mineiro attack 1.206 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 0.999. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.341 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. America Mineiro have an above-average attack strength of 1.206 — the away xG of 0.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Palmeiras's defence rating of 0.679 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Palmeiras games / 74 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 55% | Draw 26% | America Mineiro 20%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | America Mineiro 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 30% | America Mineiro 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Nov 2022, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 55% | Draw 26% | America Mineiro 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Palmeiras 1.55 / America Mineiro 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.341 / def 0.679 | America Mineiro attack 1.206 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.326 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.82
America Mineiro xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs America Mineiro kick off?
Palmeiras vs America Mineiro kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 10 November 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 America Mineiro.
Where is Palmeiras vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs America Mineiro part of?
Palmeiras vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 55% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Palmeiras and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
Record (3 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 0 | America Mineiro 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and America Mineiro in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. America Mineiro (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against America Mineiro's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — America Mineiro's attack (1.21x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.91
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.37
0.82
America Mineiro xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
4%
23.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.82 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs America Mineiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palmeiras come into this having played 74 games, going 42W 18D 14L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, America Mineiro sit at 1.42 PPG from 74 outings (28W 21D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Palmeiras's home form reads 23W 7D 7L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, America Mineiro have taken 1.14 points per game from 37 outings (10W 12D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.07 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 42W 18D 14L in their last 74 games (1.95 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 28W 21D 25L in their last 74 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or America Mineiro away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.05 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or America Mineiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, America Mineiro in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against America Mineiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
0
Draws
1
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
From 6 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, America Mineiro have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2023, when Palmeiras 4-0 America Mineiro.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and America Mineiro?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 49%, America Mineiro 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palmeiras) and 32% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; America Mineiro in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 46% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palmeiras's recent games and 32% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out America Mineiro 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat America Mineiro 2-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.55 xG and America Mineiro 0.82 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.34 / defence 0.68 against America Mineiro attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 55% | Draw 26% | America Mineiro 20%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 51%, America Mineiro 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
America Mineiro's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.