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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mirassol and Vitoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol and Vitoria finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.25 xG and Vitoria 0.74 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.16 / defence 1.03 against Vitoria attack 0.77 / defence 0.87, drawn from 14/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 49% | Draw 30% | Vitoria 22%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 43%, Vitoria 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Vitoria's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights