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Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Vasco DA Gama 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Vasco DA Gama 3-2 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.59 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.05 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasco DA Gama outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.12 / defence 1.06 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.08 / defence 1.12, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 49% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 25%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 40%, Vasco DA Gama 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights