🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sao Paulo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Sao Paulo 3-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.62 xG and Sao Paulo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sao Paulo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.21 / defence 1.01 against Sao Paulo attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 54% | Draw 25% | Sao Paulo 22%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 46%, Sao Paulo 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Sao Paulo's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.75 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights