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Mirassol and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol and RB Bragantino finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 2.16 xG and RB Bragantino 0.99 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mirassol fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against RB Bragantino attack 0.95 / defence 1.24, drawn from 24/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 64% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 16%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 42%, RB Bragantino 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights