Mirassol 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mirassol vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Wednesday 1 October 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form
Mirassol (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mirassol have posted 7W 3D 0L at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Mirassol's favour (1.80 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Mirassol register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, RB Bragantino in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Mirassol 0W, RB Bragantino 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2025, ended 0–1 with RB Bragantino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mirassol 62% and RB Bragantino 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 42% | RB Bragantino 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 2.16 xG and RB Bragantino 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.280 / defence 1.004 | RB Bragantino attack 0.947 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.042. Mirassol carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Mirassol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Mirassol games / 63 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 64% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 16%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | RB Bragantino 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | RB Bragantino 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Oct 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 64% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG Mirassol 2.16 / RB Bragantino 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.280 / def 1.004 | RB Bragantino attack 0.947 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.99
RB Bragantino xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Mirassol vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 1 October 2025 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Mirassol 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Mirassol vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs RB Bragantino part of?
Mirassol vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 64% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mirassol and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and RB Bragantino?
Record (1 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Mirassol and RB Bragantino in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mirassol's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.95x) against Mirassol's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 24/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
64%
1.56
20%
5.09
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Mirassol xG
Total xG
3.15
0.99
RB Bragantino xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.09
20%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
11%
8.70
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
2%
53.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Mirassol and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.99 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Mirassol have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 11W 9D 4L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino's form line: 9W 4D 11L from 24 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mirassol are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RB Bragantino.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mirassol have posted 2.27 PPG from 11 outings (7W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 1D 6L from 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mirassol are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.21 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; RB Bragantino in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 11W 9D 4L in their last 24 games (1.75 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or RB Bragantino away?
Mirassol's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.27 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and RB Bragantino?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Mirassol 0-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Mirassol, 64% for RB Bragantino — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mirassol) and 54% (RB Bragantino).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Mirassol's games and 64% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mirassol's recent games and 54% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mirassol and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol and RB Bragantino finished level at 1-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 2.16 xG and RB Bragantino 0.99 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mirassol fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against RB Bragantino attack 0.95 / defence 1.24, drawn from 24/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 64% | Draw 20% | RB Bragantino 16%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 42%, RB Bragantino 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.