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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Palmeiras 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Palmeiras 2-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.56 xG and Palmeiras 1.22 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.24 / defence 0.91 against Palmeiras attack 1.37 / defence 0.91, drawn from 32/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 45% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 30%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Palmeiras 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (32 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Palmeiras's trading profile (32 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.75 PPG, Palmeiras 2.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights