Mirassol 2-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Mirassol at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia plays host to Mirassol versus Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 17 July 2026 at 23:00 UTC.

Market Odds

Mirassol are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Mirassol 1.96 (48%) | Draw 3.31 (28%) | Gremio 3.87 (24%).

Form & Momentum

Mirassol have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Mirassol's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Gremio's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gremio's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Mirassol, 1.00 for Gremio — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mirassol lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Mirassol winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Gremio half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Gremio 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 49% | Gremio 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.25 xG and Gremio 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.920 / defence 1.002 | Gremio attack 0.813 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.097. Data: 55 Mirassol games / 56 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mirassol 45% | Draw 29% | Gremio 26%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Gremio 3.85. Mirassol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Mirassol as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 1.96 (fair-implied 48% vs Poisson 45%). Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence. The model sees Under 2.5 as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 36% versus the market's fair-implied 55% (priced at 1.70).

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Mirassol 70% | Gremio 50% from recent games — a notable divergence. The model sees BTTS No as less likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 42% versus the market's fair-implied 51% (priced at 1.83).

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