Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Estádio do Maracanã to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Market Odds
Fluminense are the shorter-priced side — market prices: Fluminense 1.93 (48%) | Draw 3.32 (28%) | RB Bragantino 3.99 (23%).
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense at Estádio do Maracanã this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estádio do Maracanã than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. RB Bragantino are 0.60 PPG clear of Fluminense in recent Serie A fixtures (2.10 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Fluminense have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with RB Bragantino managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 2–4 with RB Bragantino winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fluminense and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 50% versus RB Bragantino 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 45% | RB Bragantino 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.56 xG and RB Bragantino 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.148 / defence 1.026 | RB Bragantino attack 0.968 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.097. Data: 56 Fluminense games / 56 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 48% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 26%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | RB Bragantino 3.85. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Fluminense dominate the H2H record, yet RB Bragantino are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RB Bragantino (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. The model's read is broadly in line with the market at 1.93 (fair-implied 48% vs Poisson 48%). Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction. The market (1.75, fair-implied 54%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 70% | RB Bragantino 40% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.85, fair-implied 50%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 48% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Fluminense 1.56 / RB Bragantino 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.148 / def 1.026 | RB Bragantino attack 0.968 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: Fluminense 1.93 (impl 48%) | Draw 3.32 (impl 28%) | RB Bragantino 3.99 (impl 23%) • Market favourite: Fluminense at 1.93 • Poisson vs market alignment: both point to Fluminense — Poisson 48% vs market implied 48% — tight pricing suggests an efficient market; no meaningful edge detected • Goals market: Over 2.5 2.05 (impl 49%) / Under 2.5 1.75 (impl 57%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 49% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.85 (impl 54%) / No 1.87 (impl 54%) | Poisson BTTS probability 52%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.09
RB Bragantino xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Friday 17 July 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Fluminense 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 48% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fluminense and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Record (9 meetings): Fluminense 6W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 2W.
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
1X2 market: Fluminense 1.93 (impl 48%) | Draw 3.32 (impl 28%) | RB Bragantino 3.99 (impl 23%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.97x) against Fluminense's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.96
26%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.65
1.09
RB Bragantino xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.77
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
17.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Fluminense and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.09 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 28W 11D 17L from 56 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 23W 8D 25L across 56 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Fluminense against 1.38 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 22W 2D 4L from 28 games — 2.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.70 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 9W 3D 16L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.25 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 28W 11D 17L in their last 56 games (1.70 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 23W 8D 25L in their last 56 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fluminense's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.43 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Fluminense or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, RB Bragantino 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fluminense) and 50% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 54% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Fluminense's recent games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fluminense and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense and RB Bragantino finished level at 1-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.56 xG and RB Bragantino 1.09 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against RB Bragantino attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 48% | Draw 25% | RB Bragantino 26%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 45%, RB Bragantino 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.70 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.