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Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Fluminense 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Fluminense 2-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.88 xG and Fluminense 1.16 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.18 / defence 1.02 against Fluminense attack 1.11 / defence 1.13, drawn from 26/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 54% | Draw 23% | Fluminense 23%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 42%, Fluminense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Fluminense's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.65 PPG, Fluminense 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights