Mirassol 1-5 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Flamengo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Flamengo travel to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to take on Mirassol. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Flamengo have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Flamengo are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Mirassol, 1 for Flamengo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Mirassol in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 61% versus Flamengo 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 51% | Flamengo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 1.045 / defence 1.009 | Flamengo attack 1.323 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.117. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 1.49 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Mirassol games / 59 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 24% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 44%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 4.17 | Draw 3.12 | Flamengo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Mirassol 70% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 21:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 24% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Mirassol 1.08 / Flamengo 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 1.045 / def 1.009 | Flamengo attack 1.323 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Flamengo xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Flamengo kick off?
Mirassol vs Flamengo kicked off at 21:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Mirassol 1 - 5 Flamengo.
Where is Mirassol vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Flamengo part of?
Mirassol vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 24% chance of winning, Flamengo a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mirassol and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Mirassol 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Mirassol and Flamengo in?
Mirassol (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mirassol's attack rating (1.04) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Mirassol's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
24%
4.09
32%
3.12
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.57
1.49
Flamengo xG
4.09
24%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
6%
18.17
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.49 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Mirassol have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 24W 18D 17L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo's form line: 35W 16D 8L from 59 games, 2.05 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mirassol.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mirassol have posted 2.03 PPG from 30 outings (17W 10D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 15W 8D 7L from 30 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Mirassol are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.98 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Flamengo in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 24W 18D 17L in their last 59 games (1.53 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 35W 16D 8L in their last 59 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Flamengo away?
Mirassol's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.03 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Flamengo in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Flamengo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Flamengo won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mirassol's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Mirassol
1
Draws
3
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Flamengo?
From 4 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 0, Flamengo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Flamengo 2-0 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 70%, Flamengo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Mirassol and 57% for Flamengo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Mirassol's games and 57% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Mirassol's matches and 57% of Flamengo's.
Do Mirassol and Flamengo tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Flamengo run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Mirassol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Mirassol 1-5 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.49 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Flamengo outscored their 1.49 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Flamengo attack 1.32 / defence 0.79, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 24% | Draw 32% | Flamengo 44%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 51%, Flamengo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Flamengo's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.