Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Corinthians at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cruzeiro make the trip to Neo Quimica Arena to face Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Corinthians (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Neo Quimica Arena, Corinthians have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Quimica Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cruzeiro have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Corinthians against 2.00 for Cruzeiro. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Corinthians, 2 for Cruzeiro and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 50% versus Cruzeiro 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 40% | Cruzeiro 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.19 xG and Cruzeiro 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.952 / defence 0.740 | Cruzeiro attack 1.049 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.117. Corinthians's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Corinthians games / 60 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 40% | Draw 36% | Cruzeiro 24%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Cruzeiro 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 20% | Cruzeiro 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Neo Quimica Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 40% | Draw 36% | Cruzeiro 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Corinthians 1.19 / Cruzeiro 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.952 / def 0.740 | Cruzeiro attack 1.049 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Cruzeiro xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Neo Quimica Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Corinthians 1 - 2 Cruzeiro.
Where is Corinthians vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Neo Quimica Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Cruzeiro part of?
Corinthians vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 40% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Corinthians and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Cruzeiro?
Record (7 meetings): Corinthians 2W | Draws 3 | Cruzeiro 2W.
What form are Corinthians and Cruzeiro in?
Corinthians (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Cruzeiro (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 0.95x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (1.05x) against Corinthians's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
40%
2.49
36%
2.75
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.06
0.87
Cruzeiro xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
7%
13.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.87 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Corinthians's recent record stands at 20W 19D 21L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cruzeiro, meanwhile, have gone 28W 19D 13L across 60 games — 1.72 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Corinthians against 1.72 for Cruzeiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Corinthians have managed 12W 9D 8L from 29 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cruzeiro's away record stands at 10W 11D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Corinthians are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.42 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Cruzeiro in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 20W 19D 21L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 28W 19D 13L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Cruzeiro away?
Corinthians's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.55 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cruzeiro won 3-0 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Corinthians
3
Draws
3
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Cruzeiro?
From 8 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 2, Cruzeiro have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 45%, Cruzeiro 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Corinthians) and 38% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 38%; Corinthians have failed to score in 28% of games; Cruzeiro in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Corinthians's recent matches and 41% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Corinthians's recent games and 38% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cruzeiro defy the odds to beat Corinthians 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Corinthians 1-2 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.19 xG and Cruzeiro 0.87 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.95 / defence 0.74 against Cruzeiro attack 1.05 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 40% | Draw 36% | Cruzeiro 24%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Cruzeiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 40%, Cruzeiro 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.32 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.