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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Mirassol and Cruzeiro share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 20, as Mirassol and Cruzeiro drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 0.97 xG and Cruzeiro 1.21 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Cruzeiro attack 1.03 / defence 0.62, drawn from 17/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 30% | Draw 29% | Cruzeiro 41%, with Cruzeiro to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Cruzeiro 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Cruzeiro's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.65 PPG, Cruzeiro 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights