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Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Corinthians 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Corinthians 2-1 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 2.03 xG and Corinthians 1.03 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.18 / defence 1.31 against Corinthians attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 60% | Draw 22% | Corinthians 18%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights