Mirassol 1-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mirassol face Chapecoense-sc.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chapecoense-sc make the trip to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia to face Mirassol in Serie A (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Mirassol have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mirassol's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.67 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.972 / defence 1.116 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.661 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.097. Chapecoense-sc's attack rating of 0.661 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Mirassol's last 51 games and Chapecoense-sc's last 13.
Result probabilities: Mirassol 58% | Draw 24% | Chapecoense-sc 18%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 1.73 | Draw 4.10 | Chapecoense-sc 5.59. The model has a clear lean to Mirassol (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 58% | Draw 24% | Chapecoense-sc 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Mirassol 1.67 / Chapecoense-sc 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.972 / def 1.116 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.661 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Chapecoense-sc xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc FAQs
What time does Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc?
Mirassol 1 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 58% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mirassol's attack at 0.97x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.66x) against Mirassol's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Mirassol's last 51 games and Chapecoense-sc's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
58%
1.73
24%
4.10
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.48
0.81
Chapecoense-sc xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
3%
29.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.3 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Mirassol and 0.81 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Mirassol (Home) vs Chapecoense-sc (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mirassol
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc, the earliest from May 2026. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 3 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Mirassol
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Mirassol vs Chapecoense-sc H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Mirassol have won 1, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 November 2026: Chapecoense-sc 1-2 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 15, as Mirassol and Chapecoense-sc drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.67 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.81 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.66 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 58% | Draw 24% | Chapecoense-sc 18%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.