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Dominant Mirassol run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ceara.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mirassol beat Ceara 3-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.42 xG and Ceara 0.69 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Mirassol beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 1.23 / defence 0.90 against Ceara attack 0.75 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mirassol 55% | Draw 27% | Ceara 18%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Ceara 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mirassol's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Ceara's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Ceara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights